- “We think it will take domestic traffic three to five years to recover to 2019 levels, and international traffic five to seven years to recover,” says Helane Becker, senior research analyst who covers aviation for Cowen Securities, “especially if the virus remains uncontained.”
- “The recent uptick in coronavirus cases in the U.S. has many wondering about the economic impact of the continuing pandemic, especially how it plays out for the travel industry.”
- “Goldman Sachs now expects the recovery in air travel to take at least an extra year — to 2023 instead of 2022 — to return to 2019 levels, according to the latest update to the firm’s COVID-19 recovery forecast”
In a separate memo from Director of Flight Operations, John Laughter, he reiterates his message from previous communications “early retirements alone likely won’t be enough to avoid pilot furloughs altogether.” Read More
- “The nature of the airline business causes enormous operating leverage. For a given flight almost all of the costs are fixed. Thus, a small decline in revenue causes a very large decline in operating profit.”
Bottom line, if you’re an airline, military, or corporate pilot looking for work, American’s displacement bid is optimistic news for you. While American may very well furlough enough pilots to significantly increase competition they may still furlough less than United and Delta. We will find out more as their bid process progresses. Read More
Disclaimer: Our writers have spent the past week painstakingly verifying all information contained below and recognize a few limitations in United’s data. United does not publish dates of hire, only seniority numbers on their seniority list. Because of previous mergers, seniority numbers don’t easily correlate to dates of hire. Additionally, United’s bidding system is very complex which leads to constantly changing information. As such, we commit to keeping you updated as information changes and recognize some information may become inaccurate as bidding progresses.
KEY POINTS & HISTORICAL CONTEXT:
- This displacement will affect 7,096 pilots of which 6,633 of those pilots will be displaced by force, not choice. This equates to over 47% of the Delta seniority list.
- Anyone hired after December 2016, within the past 2 years and 3 months, will not be assigned an aircraft. This means approximately 2,327, 16% of their pilots, are in severe danger of possible furlough.
- For historical comparison, post 9/11, airlines saw a 30% traffic decline, similar to the projections airline executives are currently making for the Covid-19 recovery.
- Prior to 9/11, if you were to combine their seniority lists, Northwest and Delta employed 13,753 pilots. Post 9/11 they furloughed a combined 1,988 pilots which was 15% of their seniority list.
- Currently, the most junior Captain at Delta was hired in mid-2018. After displacements and furloughs are complete, a junior Captain will be around a February 2001 hire date.
BOTTOM LINE: Read More