For Pilots Only: April 13, 2024

Connecting the Dots

It's been a tough news week in the world of flying, and I've got three stories that are sure to grab your attention.

First up, Spirit Airlines finally made a long-anticipated announcement: they're furloughing 260 pilots and planning two rounds of downgrades, 130 Captains each.

Now, you might think the furloughs are the headline here but there is more to the story. Those furloughed pilots will find themselves back in the cockpit faster than you think. We’ve already seen a number of our Spirit clients schedule their preferential Atlas interview. Additionally, NetJets is hiring 900 pilots this year and regionals are chomping at the bit to recruit Direct Entry Captains so their job prospects are good. On the other side of the aisle, this Spirit furlough is likely to be a huge benefit for 1,500-hour pilots as the regionals will need to increase first officer hiring as regional jets are pulled out of storage due to increased capacity created by their newly hired Direct Entry Captains.

So, who suffers in all this?

The unseen victims in this story are the downgraded Captains. They bear a huge brunt here. They could be displaced out of base and hold worse schedules all while flying the same planes for around 40% less pay. All while their former FOs (now furloughed) eventually progress and start grabbing seniority at the majors.

And if that wasn't enough salt in the wound, those downgraded Captains could also face schedule disruptions that make home life with the family tough. Most pilots fear furloughs, and very few think about the pain and suffering that comes with being downgraded and left behind. If the downgraded pilots are smart, they'll start looking for a safe landing somewhere else. Having been furloughed twice myself, getting let go early turns out to be a blessing in disguise.

Why, you ask? Because if these former Captains decide to jump ship later on, they'll find themselves at the back of the pack behind their furloughed colleagues. It's like showing up late to the party, only to find out that the music stopped and there are no more chairs left.

You see, when you get furloughed, you start at the bottom of your next seniority list. But when you stay with the company, it's like being stuck in a golden prison - beautiful, but you’re still trapped. It's a rough spot to be in, and having navigated these waters myself, my heart goes out to those facing this dilemma.

Next up, Frontier Airlines has decided to take a page out of the "loyalty program" playbook. Starting May 1, 2024, new hires (excluding cadets and rotary transitions) will have to sign on the dotted line for a two-year commitment in the form of a training cost repayment agreement.

So if a pilot decides to jump ship before those two years are up they'll be on the hook for a pro-rated portion of the training costs, which adds up to a jaw-dropping $59,190. This agreement may not have the impact many expect. For folks that haven’t been in the industry awhile, contracts like these were the norm until around 2012 and pilots have accepted way worse deals and turned them into massive success. If a pilot runs the math and figures out that they will get to a legacy 6 or 12 months sooner by taking Frontier’s deal, they will sign the agreement. Paying back a pro-rated amount totaling $20K, $30K, or $40K is an investment many pilots will be willing to make. My point in saying this is, that don’t take a stand until you’ve run the math and understand the risk. Make a business decision, not an emotional one.

Frontier's justification?

They're pouring significant time and money into training each new pilot, and they want to make sure they stick around long enough to see a return on that investment.

It's an old strategy that has been used many times before. The ultimate question is, will it work? Or, will it backfire?

Will top-tier talent think twice before signing up? Will Frontier Captains feel trapped flying with lower-experience pilots? These are the questions that will determine whether or not it’s a success.

And then there’s the news that Wheels Up has essentially slammed on the brakes and put hiring in a holding pattern.

The reason?

Pilots aren't jumping ship like they used to!

Wheels Up cites "unforeseen challenges in the macro aviation industry" as the culprit behind this staffing shuffle. It's a stark reminder that the days of quickly job-hopping for greener pastures (or bluer skies) might be coming to an end.

Finally, for some light-hearted news, in a move that's sure to make every dog lover's heart skip a beat, the most viral story on social media right now is that BarkBox has launched an airline dedicated solely to our furry friends.

That's right, folks - on this airline, dogs fly first, and their owners are just along for the ride.

So, what does all this mean for you, the aspiring or current pilot?

Man’s best friend aside, it means it's time to put on your thinking cap and start strategizing like a pack leader. If you've got your eye on a regional gig or a spot at Frontier, it's time to break out the calculator and start crunching some numbers.

How long do you realistically see yourself staying? If it's less than two years, that training contract could end up being a bigger doghouse than you bargained for. But if you're in it for the long haul, it might just be a minor speed bump on your way to the top.

Let's say you've run the numbers and you know you'll be at Frontier for at least six months, a year, or even a year and a half.

In that case, repaying a portion of the training costs might not be the end of the world. It's like paying for a fancy dog groomer - annoying, but not a deal-breaker.

But if you're just using Frontier as a quick pit stop on your way to a legacy carrier, you might want to fasten your seatbelt and prepare for some turbulence. We've seen pilots get hired by Frontier, only to jump ship to a legacy airline within 30 days of passing training. Under this new agreement, they'd be facing a bill of around $60,000. That's enough to make even the most seasoned pilot roll over and play dead!

The moral of the story?

Have a plan, but be ready to adapt. The aviation industry is changing faster than a dog's mood when you say the word "bath," and what worked yesterday might not fly tomorrow. Map out your ideal career path, but keep a few alternate routes in your back pocket, just in case.

And to those Spirit pilots facing downgrades, I know it feels like you're stuck in a crate with no way out. But, leverage what you can, keep your network warm, and start talking with your family about when enough is enough. Because in this industry, your connections are your lifeline - they might just save your tail when you least expect it.

As for the doggy day care in the sky….

Before you start applying for the job (or packing your deadhead pup's carry-on), you might want to take a closer look at the price tag.

A one-way flight to New York will set you back a whopping $6,000.

That's enough to make even the most pampered pooch whimper!

Now, don't get me wrong - I love dogs as much as the next person. But let's be real here. This dog-centric airline idea has been tried before, and it always ends up in the doghouse.

Why?

Because it's just too doggone expensive for most people. And anyone willing to shell out $6K to fly with their furry friend is probably already chartering a private jet and feeding them gourmet meals.

So, while I applaud BarkBox for thinking outside the crate, I don't see this idea taking off anytime soon.

But who knows? Maybe they'll prove me wrong and create a whole new breed of aviation.

Stranger things have happened!

So to all my fellow pilots out there, whether you're a seasoned captain or a wide-eyed cadet, remember this: we're all in this together.

We might hit some ruff air along the way, but if we stick together and keep our eyes on the horizon, there's no storm we can't weather.

And if you're feeling overwhelmed by all these changes and you're not sure how to navigate this crazy industry, I've got your back. Need guidance navigating these turbulent skies, book time with one of my experts and let’s create a plan. We’ve been through this before and we know the way out.

Whether you're trying to decide if Frontier's training contract is right for you, or you're a Spirit pilot looking for a new place to land, I'm here to help.

Just click the link below to schedule your call, and let's get you back on track.

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Fly safe (and bark on),

James