4 min read

For Pilots Only: April 27, 2024

Picture of James Onieal James Onieal : Apr 27, 2024 10:36:39 AM

Industry News Export

Connecting the Dots

Listen up, pilots! It's time for a reality check on what's really going on in the aviation industry.

I've got some insider information that you won't find anywhere else, and trust me, you need to understand how this is going to effect you.

The first bit of information is that terminations are on the rise.

And the second piece of information is that hiring isn’t as slow as people think.

Now I know that these two pieces of information seem contradictory, but they’re not

Let’s start with terminations being on the rise.

That's right, I said, terminations. Not furloughs. Pilots are getting the axe and it's not just the newbies. I'm talking about Captains and First Officers who have union representation and are well beyond their probationary periods.

In just the past three weeks, I've had one Check Airman, one Captain, and two First Officers reach out for help after being shown the door. And these aren't problem pilots – we're talking about individuals who’ve passed training without any issues. And, they aren’t on people’s no-fly lists either.

There are two reasons for this. Every dip in pilot hiring history, since 1990, is because of some kind of crisis. The Gulf War, September 11, the housing crisis. Every time something bad has happened, there's been a decrease in pilot hiring. But this has always been corrected with an increase that has gone slightly higher from where we left off.

During coronavirus airlines were faced with two choices:
  1. Pump the brakes on growth and leave millions of dollars on the table because pilots weren't up to snuff.
  2. Hire pilots, brace for a higher attrition rate, and cash in while they sort out the kinks.
Can you guess which route they took? Option two, all the way.

Airlines were more than willing to stomach a much higher training failure and termination rate because the potential profits were just too tempting to resist.

But you can't hire that many pilots without dropping the standards. It's not possible.

So now the airlines are realizing they hired a whole bunch of people. Some of them, they really don't have patience for anymore. And now that the industry is experiencing a slight slowdown, they're not pulling any punches.

Mix that with all of the bad press around safety the airlines are getting, and now they’ve developed a zero-tolerance policy for B.S. that draws attention. Management is fed up with the negative press and they're not afraid to flex their power when it comes to pilots. Which is why terminations are on the rise.

But here's the thing – just because terminations are increasing doesn't mean hiring is grinding to a halt. In fact, it's quite the opposite.

Legacies are hiring for retirements (American retirements peak in 2025 at around 950 pilots) while regionals, certain cargo carriers, and corporate are hiring for growth.

Last week, I took to LinkedIn to share my thoughts on the current state of pilot hiring and aircraft availability. And, lo and behold, a recruiter chimed in with a comment that got my wheels turning.

Here’s what she said:

"Once the delivery book catches up with the order book for new aircraft on property, airlines will once again be able to expand their business and pilot groups. With unforeseen delivery delays across the board, it can be difficult to keep the ratio of aircraft to pilot in the golden zone. Lots of unforeseen wrenches have been thrown into the industry this year as well. I wish I had a crystal ball."

At first glance, you might interpret this as a sign that opportunities are slim right now. But there's a crucial piece of the puzzle that's not making headlines, and it's something every pilot needs to be aware of.

So, what does all this mean to pilots?

If you're already on the payroll at a stepping-stone job, take a long, hard look in the mirror. Are there any areas where you lack experience? Any CRM issues that need to be addressed? Now's the time to nip those problems in the bud before they come back to bite you. Tread carefully when choosing your battles at work. Ask yourself, “Do I really need to fight this fight?” Don't give management any reason to question your judgment or decision-making when it comes to safety.

And if you're offered a new opportunity, like an upgrade to Captain or a chance to fly internationally, you better be 100% certain that you're ready to step up to the plate. Take a long, hard look at your experience and skill set. Identify any gaps and fill them in, so you're more than ready for the position you're eyeing. Don't just settle for meeting the minimum requirements. Go above and beyond to make yourself an irresistible candidate. Diversify your flying, find mentors, read up on NAT Doc 007, and network like your career depends on it (spoiler alert: it does).

And when you do land that dream job, hit the ground running. Show up early, stay late, and be easy to work with. Be the pilot that everyone wants to fly with, not the one they dread being stuck with for a four-day trip.

This isn't kindergarten, folks. There will be no hand-holding or training wheels. There are no gold stars for effort or consolation prizes. You're playing in the big leagues now, and the stakes are higher than ever. Your skills and experience will get you in the door, but your attitude and professionalism will keep you there. And in this new era of aviation, that rings truer than ever.

The days of landing a job with minimal qualifications and getting extra sims or additional IOE are over. If you bite off more than you can chew, the airlines will have no qualms about spitting you back out.

But here's the silver lining – if you're prepared, if you're driven, and if you're willing to put in the blood, sweat, and tears, the opportunities are still there for the taking.

The hiring surge isn't over; it's just taking a short breather. But now the standards are higher than ever. And that’s ultimately a good thing. Not just for the passengers, but for pilots and the industry as a whole.

So, if you're ready to strap in and take your career to new heights, now's the time. The opportunities are out there, but they won't be handed to you on a silver platter. You've got to be willing to fight for them, tooth and nail.

And if you ever find yourself feeling lost or overwhelmed, just remember – you're not in this alone. Reach out to your mentors, lean on your support system, and don't be afraid to ask for help when you need it.

Click here to schedule a call.

The road ahead may be bumpy, but with the right mindset and a whole lot of grit, there's no limit to how high you can soar.

Stay sharp, stay hungry, and never stop pushing yourself to be better.

And as always, fly safe.

James

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For Pilots Only: May 4, 2024

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For Pilots Only: April 27, 2024

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Industry News Export
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For Pilots Only: April 13, 2024

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